ArmInfo. The net inflow of transfers from individuals in January-May 2021, increased by 89% per annum (from a 23.4% decline a year earlier) - to $ 281.5 million, which is largely supported by the continuing multiply increase in remittances from the United States. This is evidenced by the data of the RA Central Bank.
Thus, the inflow of transfers of individuals to Armenia from the United States in January-May 2021 increased by 99% (from a scanty 1.1% a year earlier), amounting to $ 212 million, along with which the trend of the outflow of transfers from Armenia to the United States changed from the decline 42.2% by 32% $ 77.6 million growth. As a result, the net inflow of transfers from individuals from the United States increased 2.8-fold - to $ 134.4 million.
At the same time, money transfers in the direction of Russia also increased. In particular, the inflow of transfers from Russia to Armenia in January-May 2021 changed the y-o-y dynamics from 31% decline to 19.3% growth, which was also observed in the outflow of transfers from Armenia to Russia - from 24.4% a decline of 15.2% growth. This led the trend of the net inflow of transfers from Russia to an upward 24.2% in January-May 2021 from a downward 37.7% in January-May 2020. As a result, in January-May 2021 the inflow of transfers from Russia amounted to $ 289.7 million, and the outflow to the Russian Federation - $ 153.6 million, which formed a net inflow in this direction at the level of $ 136.1 million.
In total, the inflow of transfers from individuals to Armenia in January-May 2021 changed the y-o-y dynamics towards 37% growth from a 22.5% decline in January-May 2020, amounting to $ 748.4 million. A similar improvement in the trend was observed in the outflow of transfers - from a 22.1% decline to 17.6% growth, with a volume of $ 466.9 million. As a result, the y-o-y trend of net inflow of transfers to Armenia also changed from a decline to a significant growth.
In the inflow, the share of Russia decreased in January-May 2021 to 38.7% from 44.5% in January-May 2020 (against 50% in January-May 2019), and decreased in the outflow - from 33.6% to 32.9 % (against 34.6% in January-May 2019). And the share of the United States in the inflow, on the contrary, increased on a y-o-y terms from 19.5% to 28.3% (against 15% in January-May 2019), having also increased in the outflow from 14.8% to 16.6% (against 20% in January-May 2019).
On a monthly terms, the net inflow of transfers to Armenia slowed down growth from April 12.5% to 5.6% in May, as a result of a slowdown in the upward trend in inflows from 5.3% to 4.1%, while the outflow growth accelerated from 0.2% to 3%. In particular, in the direction of Russia there was an acceleration of growth in inflow from 1.4% to 13.2%, with an acceleration of the decline in outflow from 5.3% to 7.5%, and in the direction of the United States a change of the dynamics of inflow from 5% growth a 4.1% decline was accompanied by a sharp exit from the 2.2% decline to a 56.2% increase in the outflow trend. A
s a result, the net inflow of transfers from Russia increased by 38.7% in May, while from the USA, on the contrary, decreased by 27%.
To note, in the forecast of the Central Bank of Armenia for 2021, updated in June, expectations for an increase in the net inflow of private transfers were improved to 15-18% (from the previously projected 7- 9%). The Central Bank notes that the revitalization of the Russian economy and the gradual lifting of antiquated restrictive measures have restored seasonal labor migration, in connection with which a higher growth in remittances is expected. In parallel with this, according to the Central Bank's estimates, the significant activity of transfers from the USA will remain.
