ArmInfo. In Armenia, economic activity growth slowed down to 8.7% per annum in January-September 2024 (from 9.7% in the same period of 2023). Unlike last year, the industrial sector has become one of the growth drivers. According to preliminary data from the RA Statistical Committee, this is accompanied by continued high growth rates of exports and imports. Despite the fact that the preliminary statistical report does not provide more detailed information, it is evident that the high growth in industrial production no longer coming from the jewelry industry. It previously showed several-fold growth, but now is experiencing a double-digit decline, as seen in the data from previous months.
In particular, the high growth of the industrial sector is now primarily supported by the production of basic metals, coke, and petroleum products. To a slightly lesser extent, it is also supported by the production of electrical equipment, furniture, woodworking industry, and metallurgy. Moreover, it is worth noting that the production of coke and liquefied petroleum products has recently shown the greatest growth albeit with minimal volume. Nevertheless, the production of basic metals remain as a leading sector in terms of volume. It has now been surpassed by the food industry, which has recently rebounded from a prolonged decline and regained its position as the top sector in terms of production volume.
According to preliminary statistics, the growth of economic activity in January-September 2024 was largely attributed to the trade sector - with a slowdown in growth rates from 23.3% to 19.5%. The construction sector also saw a decrease with a slowdown in annual growth rates from 17% to 15.9%, while the industrial sector went from a 0.6% decline to 12.6% growth. However, there was a significant slowdown in growth in the services sector - from 13.4% to 5.9%. The energy complex showed improvement in its annual dynamics, moving from a 2.8% decline to 1.2% growth. The agricultural sector maintained its growth, almost matching the pace of the previous year with a slight increase from 1.7% to 1.8%.
According to statistical data from January to September 2024, the trade sector leads in absolute value with a volume of over AMD 4.4 trillion ($11.2 billion). The service sector takes second place with AMD 2.4 trillion ($6.2 billion), followed by the industrial sector - AMD 2.1 trillion ($5.4 billion), the agricultural sector - AMD 628.7 billion ($1.6 billion), and the construction sector - AMD 406.4 billion ($1.03 billion). The total volume of electricity generated from January to September 2024 was 6422.5 million kWh, with 675.2 million kWh in September alone. It is worth noting that the gap between the industrial and service sector volumes is decreasing, due to the industrial sector experiencing double-digit growth, while the service sector is experiencing a sharp slowdown.
In September 2024, economic activity accelerated compared to September 2023, increasing from last year's 5.6% to a reported 7%. In September alone, growth slowed to 6.6% from August's 7.2% (against a slowdown in growth in September 2023 from 6.2% to 3.7%). Moreover, the industrial sector experienced a significant slowdown in growth from 7.5% to 1.6% in September 2024, a reversal from the same month a year earlier, when growth shifted from 8.1% to a 0.6% decline.
In annual terms (September 2024 to September 2023), all sectors showed an upward trend. In particular, the construction sector experienced annual double-digit growth - 14.7%, the trade sector - 13.4% and the services sector - 11.6%, followed by the energy complex - 7% and the industrial sector - 4.6%. A year earlier, from September 2023 to September 2022, the industrial sector and the energy complex were in decline - 4.3% and 3.9%. In contrast, the trade sector grew by 24.2% and the construction sector by 15.7% The services sector also saw growth at 4.6% growth.
Against this background, Armenia's foreign trade turnover in January-September 2024 reached 9.4 trillion. AMD ($23.7 billion), with an acceleration of the already high annual growth rate to 73.5% (from 47.2% in the same period of 2023). This is due to a more pronounced acceleration of the high rates of annual growth of exports - from 48.5% to 2.1 times, than imports, which increased from 46.4% to 54.2%. The absolute value of imports amounted to AMD 4.2 trillion, exports were AMD 5.2 trillion ($10.6 billion and $13.1 billion).
In September 2024, foreign trade turnover accelerated its growth from 15.9% to 22.4% compared to September 2023. This increase was due to a greater extent to the acceleration of export growth from 31.5% to 38.9% , while imports growth increased from 5.6% to 11.9%. In September alone, exports reversed their growth trend from 15.6% to a 13.1% decline. This decline was also observed in imports, which shifted from a 1.7% growth to a 12.9% decline. As a result, the overall dynamics of foreign trade turnover worsened from a 7.4% growth to a 13% decline.
It should be noted that since 2023, the methodology for calculating the volumes of generated electricity has changed in statistical reports; in particular, the volumes of electricity generated by autonomous producers are now being taken into account. Data for the agricultural sector are only published in quarterly and annual statistical reports. (The average calculated exchange rate of the dram in January-September 2024 was AMD 393.34/$1).
