Armenia has real chance to become regional electric energy hub -  expert 

ArmInfo.  Armenia has a real opportunity to become a regional electricity hub. UN National Energy Expert Ara Marjanyan stated this in an interview with ArmInfo,  commenting on the opportunities and risks of integrating the  country's power system with Azerbaijan's.

On January 29, at a briefing, Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan  announced that synchronizing the power systems of Armenia and  Azerbaijan would enable Armenia to access new electricity export  markets and increase supply volumes. Just 24 hours after this  announcement, Azerbaijan's national operator, Azerenergy, announced  the start of construction of a power transmission line in the  direction of Nakhichevan through Armenia. Construction is underway on  a double-circuit, high-voltage 330 kV power line with a capacity of  up to 1,000 MW. Azerenergy emphasized that work is underway  simultaneously in the mainland and in Nakhichevan, where sections of  the line are being laid, 74 and 105 kilometers long, respectively.  The next stage of the project plans to build an additional  44-kilometer line in Armenia. The company also noted that the  construction of the transmission line is part of the project to  create the Azerbaijan-Turkey-Europe international energy corridor. As  part of this project, a 230-kilometer transmission line will be built  from Nakhichevan to the Turkish border.

In this regard, Marjanyan noted, the unification of the two  countries' electricity systems is a very promising project, offering  a number of advantages for the development of both Armenia and  Azerbaijan's potential.  The expert continued, electricity is one  area of the energy sector in which Armenia has clear advantages over  its neighbors. Only Armenia has a certain surplus of generating  capacity, which will allow Yerevan to quickly increase electricity  exports to its neighbors and other countries.

"Neither Georgia, nor Azerbaijan, nor Turkey, nor Iran are capable of  significantly increasing their export volumes. Over the past two to  three years, Armenia's annual electricity exports have been  comparable to Turkey's. It's worth noting that our country's  population is approximately 30 times smaller than Turkey's.   Therefore, Armenia's export potential is clear. Connecting the  electricity systems of Armenia and Azerbaijan, and potentially  Turkey, will allow Yerevan to establish itself as a regional hub  where electricity flows can be regulated, thereby restoring its  importance as an electricity exporter," Marjanyan said. He added that  the project's implementation will lead to the development of  Armenia's electricity sector and its integration into the regional  electricity system.

The expert also noted that the scale of the emerging opportunities  significantly outweighs the potential risks. "If, for example, we  compare electric power with other sectors, such as gas or petroleum  products, the risks are minimal, since the country produces neither.  Therefore, there is no threat of Armenia becoming overly dependent on  electricity imports. The risk here is this: the integration of the  two countries' systems, and potentially Turkey's as well, must occur  in such a way that the republic becomes a true hub, controlling the  flows, and this requires substations at the input and output. It is  simply not advantageous for the country to simply have a high-voltage  power line running through its territory; substations are needed to  develop its energy potential," Marjanyan noted.

According to ArmInfo experts, the implementation of this project  could ultimately lead to the closure of another program-the  construction of the North-South Energy Corridor (Iran-  Armenia-Georgia-Russia power line), particularly on the  Armenia-Georgia section. The project proposed by the Azerbaijani  side, at first glance, appears less costly, both financially and  technically, but it essentially continues the US policy of completely  ousting Russia from the region.

Commenting on this development, the UN national expert recalled that  back in 2009, a project to create an Azerbaijan-Georgia-Turkey energy  bridge was implemented. During its implementation, Armenia was ousted  from the region's infrastructure. At the time, official Yerevan  publicly declared the program doomed, as neither Baku nor Tbilisi  possessed export potential, which, in reality, transpired over the  following decade. Now, as Marjanyan emphasized, following the  changing geopolitical situation, particularly following the  conclusion of the Armenian-American agreements in Washington last  August, opportunities for cooperation within a more rational  framework have emerged. This essentially involves presenting Armenia  as a potential electricity exporter. At the same time, Yerevan should  not limit itself to simply connecting the energy systems of Armenia  and Azerbaijan. "The TRIPP project should not impact the North-South  program, particularly in the Iranian direction," the expert  emphasized.

He recalled that Yerevan and Tehran had previously reached an  agreement to exchange Iranian gas for electricity. Currently, these  volumes are insignificant: Iran annually supplies Armenia with 300  million cubic meters of gas, receiving approximately 1 billion kWh of  electricity in return. "After the completion of the third  Iran-Armenia power transmission line, these volumes could increase to  1 billion cubic meters of gas and 3 billion kWh of electricity,  respectively. True, as of now, the third power transmission line's  construction volume is only 30% complete, but in any case, one should  not impede the other," Ara Marjanyan concluded.

As a reminder, a trilateral meeting of the leaders of the United  States, Armenia, and Azerbaijan took place at the White House on  August 8. During this meeting, Armenian Prime Minister Nikol  Pashinyan, US President Donald Trump, and Azerbaijani President Ilham  Aliyev signed a joint declaration aimed at resolving the conflict  between Yerevan and Baku.