Russian economic growth will be 1% in 2025

ArmInfo. According to preliminary data, the Russian economy will grow by 1% in 2025, Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak announced at the Federation Council Committee on Economic Policy.

"Despite all the challenges facing our economy, growth (...) has been maintained in 2025, albeit slower than in previous years. Let me remind you that in 2023, economic growth was 4.3%, and in 2024, 4.1%. We expect 1% growth in 2025," he said.

Novak noted that the slowdown is primarily due to "tight monetary policy, tight fiscal policy, and inflation targeting." "And it should be noted that this objective is being achieved: while last year's inflation was 9.5%, this year's level was 5.6% by the end of the year, which is significantly lower than the forecast of 6.8%," the Deputy Prime Minister emphasized.

The positive economic dynamics, according to Novak, were driven, in part, by increased industrial production, particularly in the manufacturing sector.

According to preliminary data, manufacturing output grew by 2.8% in 2025 (according to Rosstat, growth for the first 11 months of 2025 was 2.6%).

Analysts surveyed by Interfax at the end of December projected Russian GDP growth in 2025 of 0.9%, slightly lower than the Ministry of Economic Development's September forecast (1%) and closer to the upper limit of the Bank of Russia's new October forecast (0.5-1%).

Novak also reported that the construction industry also contributed positively to economic growth in 2025. According to preliminary estimates, construction volumes increased by 2.2% by the end of 2025.

He noted that the transportation sector contributed negatively to economic growth in 2025. According to preliminary estimates, freight turnover decreased by approximately 1% by the end of 2025, and freight loading on the Russian Railways network decreased by 5.6% in 2025.

Consumer activity remained high in 2025, according to Novak, and contributed positively to economic growth. According to preliminary estimates, the total turnover of retail trade, catering, and paid services to the population increased by approximately 3% by the end of 2025.

"The labor market remains in a rather tense situation, as it has been since 2024. According to preliminary estimates, the unemployment rate will average 2.2% in 2025—the lowest level in modern Russian history," the Deputy Prime Minister said.

In 2025, he noted, strong wage growth continued. According to preliminary estimates, nominal wages increased by 13.6%, while real wages grew by 4.5%.