Economic activity grows from 8% up to 9.2% in Armenia in 2025

ArmInfo.  In Armenia, economic activity growth accelerated to 9.2% annually in January-December 2025 (from 8% in 2024). Meanwhile, foreign trade contracted at a  double-digit rate, compared to strong growth a year ago. According to  the final data from the RA Statistics Committee, the main growth  drivers were the construction and services sectors, with slightly  moderate contributions from the energy, agricultural, and industrial  sectors.

According to statistics, this economic activity in January-December  2025 was largely due to a significant increase in growth rates in the  construction sector (from 14.5% to 20.2%), in the energy sector (from  6.5% to 6.7%), and in the agricultural sector (from 1.6% to 5.6%), as  well as the maintenance of annual growth in the services sector at  10.6%. At the same time, the industrial sector managed to maintain  growth at 4.7%. A slowdown in annual growth was recorded only in the  trade sector, from 17% to 3%.

In terms of volume for January-December 2025, the trade sector  retained the lead, with a volume of 6.8 trillion drams ($17.5  billion). The services sector ranks second in terms of volume at 4.1  trillion drams ($10.6 billion), followed by the industrial sector at  3.3 trillion ($8.6 billion), the agricultural sector at 1.1 trillion  ($2.7 billion), and the construction sector at 810.7 billion drams  ($2.1 billion). Electricity generation in January-December 2025  amounted to 10,010.3 million kWh, of which 1,008.5 million kWh was  generated in December alone.

Moreover, from December 2025 to December 2024, economic activity  accelerated more significantly - from 4.7% to 14.4%. In December  alone, the trend reversed from a 0.1% decline to a double-digit 23.8%  growth (almost identical to December 2024, when a 22.7% growth rate  emerged from stagnation a year ago). Furthermore, in December 2025,  the industrial sector accelerated from 12.8% to 25%, while a year  ago, in the same month, the trend reversed from a 0.5% decline to  17.7% growth.

At the same time, December saw a strong acceleration in growth in the  construction sector - from 4.3% to 77.9%, in the trade sector - from  5.9% to 26.5%, and in the energy sector - from 5.4% to 19.4%.   Improvement in growth dynamics during the reporting month was  observed in the services sector - from a 2.3% decline to 13.3%  growth.

On a year-over-year basis (December 2025 vs. December 2024), all  sectors demonstrated growth, with the highest growth rates in the  industrial sector at 38.6%, followed by slightly lower growth in  construction at 20.5%. The next highest growth rates were in the  energy sector at 8.9%, the services sector at 8.2%, and the trade  sector at 3.2%. A year earlier, in December 2024 compared to December  2023, only the industrial sector recorded a decline (14.8%), while  other sectors demonstrated double-digit growth: services - 19.4%,  construction - 12.9%, energy - 12.8%, and trade - 10.3%.

Against this backdrop, Armenia's foreign trade turnover in  January-December 2025 reached 8.2 trillion drams ($21.4 billion),  declining year-on-year to a 29% decline (from 41.5% growth in 2024).  This is due to a significant decline in both exports and imports - by  36.1% and 23.6%, respectively, year-on-year, while last year both  indicators demonstrated significant growth - 53.1% (exports) and  33.8% (imports). As a result, the absolute value of exports for  January-December 2025 amounted to 3.2 trillion drams ($8.4 billion),  and imports - 5 trillion drams ($13 billion).

However, in December 2025, compared to December 2024, foreign trade  turnover demonstrated a 32% increase due to both export growth of  34.3% and import growth of 30.4%. A year earlier, in December 2024,  compared to December 2023, foreign trade turnover declined by 37.3%  due to a 48.6% decline in exports and a 26.5% decline in imports.

The Central Bank of Armenia, in its December forecast, predicted GDP  growth of 6.3-4.1% for 2026 and then 4.9-5.3% in 2027. In 2025,  according to the Central Bank's estimates, GDP growth will be 5.9%  (similar to the actual 5.9% growth in 2024). According to the Central  Bank's updated forecast, export and import dynamics, after nearly  flat growth in 2023 of 30.7-30.2% and a decline of 11-3.2% in 2024,  will deepen into negative territory in 2025, falling to 37.3-36.1%  (for exports) and 32.7-32.5% (for imports).  However, by 2026, the  Central Bank expects both export dynamics to improve, with growth of  4.5-3.4% and import dynamics to improve to 3.1%, with this trend  continuing in 2027 to 3.9-4.1% (for exports) and 4.2-3.8% (for  imports).

According to the IMF's updated forecast in December, Armenia's GDP  growth will be 5% and 5.5% in 2025 and 2026, respectively. According  to the IMF forecast, Armenia's foreign trade indicators will decline  by 31.1% in 2025 for exports and 28.1% for imports, with growth  returning to a nearly flat 2.2-2.1% in 2026 and then moderately  accelerating to 3.4-3.7% in 2027.

In its January forecast, the World Bank (WB) predicts a slowdown in  Armenia's GDP growth in 2026-2027 to 4.9-4.7% from an estimated 5.2%  in 2025.

The draft Armenian state budget for 2025 projected GDP growth of  5.1%, while the 2026 state budget projects 5.4% economic growth.  According to the Statistical Committee of the Republic of Armenia,  Armenia's GDP growth, after accelerating in 2022 from 5.8% to 12.6%,  began to slow in 2023 to 8.3% and then to 5.9% in 2024, amounting to  10.2 trillion drams (approximately $26 billion) in absolute terms.  The GDP deflator index also began to decline to 103.1% in 2023 and  101.4% in 2024 after growing from 106.9% to 108% in 2022