ArmInfo.Inflation has begun to accelerate in Armenia, as reported by the Luys Foundation, whose experts analyzed the socioeconomic development of the Armenian economy in January-February 2026.
According to the foundation's report, high economic growth rates in Armenia are projected to continue in 2026, primarily driven by growth in the mining industry. The current year started with a relatively high economic activity index, which experienced a slight slowdown in February. In February, the Armenian Economic Activity Index (EAI) was 7.2%, a decrease of 0.4 percentage points from January. The IEA for January-February was 7.4%, with the industrial sector making the largest positive contribution, which in turn was largely attributed to growth in the mining industry. The services, trade, and construction sectors also contributed positively to the EAI.
Export and import indicators have rebounded. After a decline in January, export and import volumes sharply increased in February by 37.6% and 26.9%, respectively. Although structural foreign trade data for February have not yet been published, an analysis of January's figures suggests that the export growth was mainly driven by increased exports of mining products.
State budget revenues and expenditures are on the rise, but capital expenditures are decreasing. In January-February 2026, both state budget revenues and expenditures increased. However, capital expenditures saw a significant decrease of 58.8%. This sharp decline in capital expenditures is concerning, given their importance for long-term economic growth and infrastructure development.
At the same time, inflation has also started to accelerate. In February 2026, inflation was 4.3%, up 0.5 percentage points from January. However, under these conditions, the Central Bank did not revise the refinancing rate in March, keeping it at 6.5%.
