ArmInfo. The global economy remains resilient despite the impact of the energy shock. In the United States, domestic demand and investment remain strong; in the eurozone, signs of stabilization have emerged after a weak start to the year; and China is maintaining high growth rates through exports and the development of high-tech industries. This is stated in the new issue of the Macroeconomic Review prepared by the Eurasian Development Bank (EDB).
The report notes that inflation in the United States and the eurozone accelerated mainly due to rising energy costs, while overall price pressures remain subdued. In the baseline scenario, we expect the external environment to gradually stabilize in the second half of 2026, although energy prices and interest rates will remain higher than at the beginning of the year.
Global economic activity remains resilient. In July 2026, the composite PMI stood at 52.6, compared with 52.0 in December 2025. The low for the year to date was recorded in March, immediately after the escalation of the situation in the Middle East (51.0). The global economy was supported by a revival in manufacturing, which offset some slowdown in services. Industrial activity is being supported by investment in the fuel and energy and defense-industrial complexes, as well as in transport and digital infrastructure.
The situation in the Middle East remains the main source of uncertainty for energy markets. Since March, transit through the Strait of Hormuz has been unstable. Even from mid-June to mid-July, when the route was partially operational, crude oil shipments were several times lower than a year earlier. In the first half of 2026, Brent rose 27% year-on-year, to $91 per barrel. The increase in refined-product prices was more substantial. In particular, exchange prices for gasoline in the United States and Europe rose by approximately 40% year-on-year.
Several factors have so far limited the scale of the price shock. First, the market entered 2026 with a supply surplus of around 2 million barrels per day. Second, some shipments were rerouted to bypass Hormuz. Third, countries used accumulated reserves of oil and petroleum products. This buffer is shrinking: as of July 17, commercial and strategic oil reserves in the United States were approximately 15% below their level at the end of February. If supply restrictions persist, their impact on the global market and economy may intensify within one or two quarters. We regard this as a risk scenario. In the baseline scenario, EDB analysts expect a gradual recovery in supply and a decline in oil prices.
Domestic demand in the United States remains resilient. In the second quarter of 2026, GDP increased by 2.1% year-on-year, following 2.7% year-on-year in the first quarter. The dynamics were influenced by an increase in imports, while household consumption and investment accelerated. In the first half of the year, the economy grew by 2.4% year-on-year, compared with 2.2% year-on-year in the second half of 2025. High-frequency data also remain strong: in July, the composite PMI reached 54.5, its highest level in nine months. One of the main drivers is investment in artificial intelligence technologies, although in the second half of the year we expect some slowdown in their momentum (a decline in the share prices of companies in the sector and a waning of speculative interest in it are likely).
Eurozone economic growth remains weak, but signs of a recovery in activity emerged in the second quarter. In the first half of the year, GDP increased by 0.7% year-on-year, following 1.3% year-on-year in the second half of 2025. At the same time, the growth rate in the second quarter rose to 1.0% year-on-year from 0.5% year-on-year in the first quarter. The economy is being supported by household consumption, a resilient labor market and increased government spending. The high cost of imported energy resources, which is raising business costs, remains a constraining factor. In July, the PMIs for manufacturing and services returned to above 50, indicating an improvement in the situation. A risk is the low level of gas reserves: as of August 13, EU storage facilities were 60% full, 17 percentage points below the five-year average for this date.
China’s economy is slowing, but it is maintaining high growth rates. In the second quarter, GDP increased by 4.3% year-on-year, following 5.0% year-on-year in the first quarter. Weakness in construction and the real estate market is being offset by exports and the development of high-value-added industries. In July, the composite PMI fell to 50.8 (from 53.6 a month earlier), largely due to adverse weather conditions. In the second half of the year, we expect GDP growth in the range of 4.5–5% year-on-year. The main driver will remain the development of high-tech industries and related manufacturing.
