ArmInfo. Turkey is gradually increasing its energy influence in the South Caucasus, increasingly intersecting with the interests of Russia and Iran, according to Vahe Davtyan, a political scientist, professor, and leading researcher at the Center for Caucasian Studies at the Institute of Geophysical Analysis and Satellite Communications of the Russian Academy of Sciences.
The expert noted that Georgia has begun importing electricity from Turkey. For example, from October 5 to 11, according to the operator ESCO, 11.4 million kWh of electricity was supplied from Turkey to Georgia.
In this context, he proposed identifying several key factors influencing the implementation of this deal.
According to the expert, Georgia has not imported electricity from Russia since April 2026, although last year, Russian supplies began in August and continued throughout the fall. He noted that in 2025, electricity imports from Russia amounted to 971.2 million kWh, or 62.4% of all Georgian imports. Of this, 724.1 million kWh went to Abkhazia. From January to April 2026, Russian supplies totaled approximately 748 million kWh.
"In the summer, Tbilisi and Ankara launched an electricity barter scheme. In May and July, Georgia supplies Turkey with surplus hydropower, and receives a similar amount in return in the fall. A similar practice was used in 2018. Turkey is already the main market for Georgian electricity. In 2025, it accounted for 401.4 million kWh, or approximately 79% of all exports. "Georgia supplied Turkey with an additional 169 million kWh between May and July 2026," he noted.
Davtyan is confident that the deal is more than justified economically, as the Georgian energy system traditionally faces seasonal imbalances: a surplus of hydropower in the spring and summer, and a deficit in the fall and winter. Barter allows for this problem to be partially offset.
In this context, the expert noted that Turkey is gradually expanding its presence in the South Caucasus's electricity sector, complementing the already established oil and gas infrastructure. Moreover, this applies not only to supplies, but also to participation in regulating seasonal cross-border flows.
At the same time, he is confident that the October deliveries should not yet be interpreted as Russia being forced out of the Georgian electricity market. They may be related to the return of previously exported Georgian electricity.
"These processes are also of interest to Armenia, especially in the context of the possible restoration of energy ties with Turkey. Last week's meeting between the Armenian Minister of Infrastructure and Territorial Administration and representatives of the Turkish Electricity Transmission Corporation is proof of this. Moreover, Armenian-Georgian electricity trade is also showing some momentum. In 2025, Armenia exported 81.7 million kWh to Georgia, and Georgia exported 52.4 million kWh to Armenia. Furthermore, 14.3 million kWh of Armenian electricity was transited to Turkey through Georgian territory," the expert continued.
Davtyan emphasized that in January 2026, Armenia supplied Georgia with an additional 63.65 million kWh. Moreover, according to ESCO statistics, no reciprocal deliveries from Georgia to Armenia were recorded between January and August.
"The question is under what conditions Yerevan will be able to connect to the emerging regional electricity market and to what extent this will meet its own energy security interests. For now, we can see a gradual strengthening of Turkey's energy influence in the South Caucasus. And here, Ankara's interests increasingly overlap with those of Russia and Iran," Davtyan concluded in his Telegram post.
